Taiwan leader’s meeting with McCarthy could provoke a ‘big’ reaction from China, says an analyst

Flags of the United States and Taiwan displayed on phone screens can be seen in this multiple exposure illustrative photo taken in Poland on August 4, 2022.

Jakub Porzycki | Nurphoto | Getty Images

A meeting between Taiwan’s leaders and the speaker of the US House of Representatives will generate a strong reaction from China, said Anna Ashton, Eurasia Group’s China director.

Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen is likely to meet in person Kevin McCarthy If you making a transit visit to Los Angeles next week. Tsai is currently on a 10-day trip to visit Central American allies, Belize and Guatemala.

The meeting with McCarthy was not officially confirmed.

“The reality is McCarthy is third in line for the presidency. A meeting like this would be the highest-level official U.S. meeting with an incumbent Taiwanese president on U.S. soil ever,” Aston told CNBC’s Squawk Box Asia on Thursday.

“Beijing has already warned of its opposition to this meeting and we could see a reaction even as big as the reaction after Pelosi’s visit.”

The US crossing China’s red lines could put China in a position where it feels compelled to use force and act more confidently.

Anna Ashton

China Director at Eurasia Group

Thorny relationships

“In all previous transits, she has met with members of Congress, as well as state and local officials, and made public appearances,” said White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby at a press conference On Wednesday.

China’s foreign ministry had strong words for the US

“The trip is not so much a ‘transit’ but an attempt to seek breakthroughs and promote ‘Taiwan’s independence,'” said a spokeswoman. Mao Ning, said Wednesday at a regular news conference. “It’s not that China is overreacting, it’s that the US is egregiously condoning and supporting the ‘Taiwan independence’ separatists.”

Cross red lines

Beijing has repeatedly warned against this Taiwan is the “first red line” that must not be exceeded.

Ashton noted that it is important to note that China has often said it prefers long-term peaceful reunification with Taiwan.

“Time is on China’s side and always has been — except for the fact that the US has become a little less predictable,” the analyst said.

“The US crossing over China’s red lines could put China in a situation where it feels compelled to use force and act more confidently because it protects its interests from a US attempt to block them.”

Source : www.cnbc.com

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