Advance Auto is in low gear. It has to shift up quickly.

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It was a good year for the auto parts trade. Most anyway.

There’s no shortage of factors that drive drivers to repair their cars rather than trade them in.

One is the average age of a vehicle in the US that is over 12 years. Cars that old need a lot of maintenance, especially as a wider reopening means more drivers returning to work, dropping off and picking up kids from school, and just being more socially involved.

And falling gas prices are making it more affordable to hit the road. Demand has fallen in recent years and is still declining despite a return to a pre-pandemic way of life.

Then add those pesky kinks in the auto supply chain. Many bottlenecks have reduced, but there are still many bottlenecks. Consequently, buying a new vehicle can require both patience and deep pockets: The average price According to the Kelly Blue Book, the cost of a new vehicle in the United States is almost $50,000 – about two-thirds of the median annual household income. Used car prices have skyrocketed during the Covid-19 crisis and are still high. Last summer, the average price was $33,000, Autoweek, a car magazine, reported.

So it’s no wonder why many Americans choose to repair their cars — and auto parts dealers’ stocks

AutoZone

(Ticker: AZO) and

O’Reilly Automotive

(ORLY) reflect that fix-it mentality: Both stocks are up well over 20% over the past year. In comparison, the S&P 500 fell almost 11%.

The exception is Advance Auto Parts (AAP).

Advance Auto has plummeted nearly 43% over the past year. The underperformance goes back even further: The stock is up just 6% over the past five years, while AutoZone and O’Reilly are up more than 250%.

The reason for Advance Auto’s lackluster problem is a trend reversal that started years ago and still isn’t taking hold. The company’s acquisitions of Carquest and Worldpac, made almost a decade ago, did not prove to be smooth integrations and hampered operations. Margins lag far behind the competition. And in the past, even bulls have pointed out that management has been slow to implement changes needed to close the gap and improve other areas of the company.

All of the stumbling blocks have resulted in a string of disappointing quarters — and Advance Auto hasn’t even benefited as much from the broader macro tailwinds that are benefiting the industry.

The latest results, reported in late February, were surprisingly better, but investors are clearly not convinced the company can repeat those numbers: Advance Auto’s shares fell for days after the report, hitting lows seen since summer 2020 were no longer achieved.

All of the missteps have left many analysts on the sidelines, although there was a bear on Friday

Barclays

upgraded the shares from underweight to equal weight. Still, he lowered his price target to $129 from $140.

Now, according to Wall Street, there is only one sell rating

fact set
,

but as its equal-weight rating suggests, Barclays isn’t banging investors on the table to buy the stock, even at its depressed levels. More than 70% of the 24 analysts covering Advance Auto have a hold rating or equivalent, while six are bullish — the fewest in at least five years.

Barron’s Auto Parts Store Referrals were profitable, although Advance Auto failed to deliver the uptrend it was hoping for. Certainly, at less than 11 times forward earnings, the shares still remain cheap.

Nonetheless, investors understandably want more evidence that the company’s transformation is really underway before they jump in. A few more reports like the better-than-expected fourth quarter would go a long way in proving the company is back on track.

At this point, Advance Auto remains a show-me story. Still, shareholders may have less patience for a long-winded story when their peers repeatedly outperform the stock.

Write to Teresa Rivas at teresa.rivas@barrons.com