The XFL season is nearing halftime this week as the league landscape really comes into focus. The Houston Roughnecks and DC Defenders lead their respective divisions with 4-0 records, while the Vegas Vipers and Orlando Guardians remain 4-0. One of the winless teams will pick up their first win this weekend when they meet in Vegas, while the defenders and roughnecks are both short favorites in very competitive matchups.
Attacks continue to see more success each week as teams gained a season-high 5.7 yards per game last weekend. Sports betting is slowly pushing totals above the 30s as the overs are consistently 8-7-1 throughout the season. Not only are the Defenders and Roughnecks perfect on the league table, but both teams have all four weeks covered for weather. The favorites (9-5-2 ATS) – and especially the home favorites (7-4 ATS) – were great bets. Will San Antonio and Vegas be able to carry the trend this week despite their combined 1-7 record?
Week 5 features some great encounters between teams of similar tiers. This makes the handicaps more difficult, but there are certainly some betting angles that we can exploit. Here are my best bets for all four games on the board.
Houston Roughnecks (-3) at Seattle Sea Dragons (O/U 42.5)
Football comes to Seattle on Thursday nights, where the best offenses in the league go head-to-head. Houston offensive coordinator AJ Smith’s airstrike has given the Roughnecks over 30 points per game while Seattle has torched opponents for 862 yards in the last two games. Defenses didn’t stop Seattle. The Sea Dragons only stop themselves and flip the ball at league high speed. Seattle QB Ben DiNucci gave away the ball just once in last week’s win against the Brahmas, but there’s plenty of reason to think he’s about to fall off the wagon. Wade Phillips made a career out of making QBs uncomfortable. The Houston defense leads the league in sacks (17) and forces over two turnovers per game. It’s a stark contrast to a San Antonio defense last week that forced just three turnovers all year. Seattle is talented enough to cause a stir when they play a clean game, but that’s not something I’d bet on. However, I can’t give a three-pointer to a team that leads the XFL in net yards per play (1.7), so I’m paying the price to play the money line. The bet: Houston ML (-165)
DC Defenders (-2) at St. Louis Battlehawks (O/U 41.5)
The defenders were my kryptonite. I’ve faded them every week and knowing they are 4-0 ATS I don’t need to explain how to do that. So I understand if you don’t chase me while I’m doing this for the fifth time. St. Louis is 3-1, with its only loss at DC in a 34-28 shootout in which it turned the ball four times. The Battlehawks have only had turnover the other three weeks, so I’m betting the turnover luck isn’t there for defenders this time. St. Louis clearly has the XFL’s greatest home field advantage, having packed 38,000 screaming fans into the dome for its home opener. Game of the week 3 got really cracking at the end and this is the birth of the XFL’s first real rivalry. I’ll take the points with the house dog and bet the Battlehawks will retaliate. The bet: St. Louis +2
Orlando Guardians (+7) at Vegas Vipers (O/U 41.5)
The Vegas Vipers are a lot better than their 0-4 record would suggest. However, I never put down 7 points with a 0-4 team with the worst defense in the league. We ran into a similar situation in week 3 when we conceded Orlando +9.5 in the money against Arlington and this game gives me the same vibes. Both teams easily overtook Arlington while only a point or two away from victory. The Vipers have the better offense, but they conceded over 230 yards on the ground last week. QB Quinton Flowers is expected to make his first start for the Guardians. Confronting another mobile QB isn’t what the doctor ordered. That’s way too many points. The bet: Orlando +7
Arlington Renegades (+2.5) at San Antonio Brahmas (O/U 36)
When Bob Stoops’ Renegades take the field, we know what to do. As bad as I looked after betting against DC, the dwindling Arlington was profitable enough to erase the losses and then some. Bettors should prepare for an old-fashioned stone fight between two of the league’s most inefficient offenses, averaging 3.8 and 3.6 yards per game. The total of 36 tell us everything we need to know. The offensive futility is compounded by the conservative nature of both coaches, but at least San Antonio seems to be trying something different. The Brahmas failed to score a touchdown for the first time last week after halving the playbook for QB Jack Coan. I think they’ll likely pull the plug on Coan soon, which should create some spark on offense. San Antonio are the better side and looked much stronger against common opponents. It gave Houston its biggest scare of the season, leading Orlando by 18 points. I’ll take the short number with the home favorite. The bet: San Antonio -2.5.
Source : sports.yahoo.com